Award: Woodrow Wilson
Export Structure Change: An Alternative Way to Predict Future Economic Growth of China
Developing countries like China have slowed down significantly recently, and there have been concerns over potential “hard-landing” in China. I seek to predict China’s future growth using its changing export structure. This project classifies China’s export products into different categories, and emphasis is added onto the analysis of technology intensive division. If this division develop quickly over the past several years, we may infer that China’s slow down is compensated by technology advancement. However, the result shows no significant development of technology intensive industry, thus a “hard-landing” is more likely.
Mentor: Professor Olivier Jeanne, Department of Economics