Dodging Bullets and Healing at a Quickening Pace

CFE and SPF Comparison   Real GDP Unemployment Nonfarm Payrolls   SPF Median CFE SPF Median CFE SPF Median CFE 2013Q2 1.8 2.6 7.6 7.5 179 196 2013Q3 2.3 2.6 7.5 7.3 143 198 2013Q4 2.7 3.0 7.4 7.1 173 199 2014Q1 2.5 3.0 7.3 7.1 179 203 2014Q2 3.2 3.0 7.2 6.8 185 209 […]

Yellow Hats and Eating Crow

Colorful news week. For those of you who didn’t keep up: Bernanke wore a red tie to the press conference and informed us that he can’t beat Ken Rogoff at chess; QE2 (which will be completed) wore a yellow hat at the wedding; and Warren Buffett isn’t keen on gold. In food news, Buffett—used to […]

What economics needs? More CFEs

CFE Fellow Bob Barbera pointed out to us a blog entry by Brad DeLong with the title, “Why Aren’t Economics Departments Using Their Macroeconomic Slots to Hire People Who Know Walter Bagehot?”. Paul Krugman and Larry Summers are mentioned in the post discussing the important ideas economists seem to have forgotton. One answer to DeLong’s […]

CFE Site Bolsters Editorial Staff (and Navy)

With all the rumblings going on in the world and their immense impact on political and financial outcomes, the CFE Guru a) could not keep up, and b) worries that floods and pestilence must be next. Thus, we’ve added two new Contributing Editors, who also provide the Guru a hedge should those floods roll into […]

Goldman Sachs visit a big success

On Wednesday night, five Hopkins alumnus working in the Securities Division at Goldman Sachs spoke to Hopkins undergrads. In a room packed about 150 students in Mason Hall, the alumnus spoke briefly about Goldman Sachs’ work culture and then turned to fielding various questions from students. After an interesting question/answer session, a brief networking session […]

Our own Bob Barbera’s “Cost of Capitalism”

Author: Robert Barbera Title: The Cost of Capitalism: Understanding Market Mayhem and Stabilizing our Economic Future Published: 2009 Publisher: McGraw Hill ISBN: 0071628444 Our own Bob Barbera (Fellow of the CFE, Hopkins undergrad and Ph.D., All American in Lacrosse) has written a great book on Minsky Moments in Capitalism–how excesses and crashes tend to be […]

Prof. Wright: TIPS Not Signaling Inflation

Prof. Wright recently had a guest column on the WSJ Real Time Economics site arguing that (despite what front-page stories in the NYT ans WSJ say) the TIPS market is showing worrisome signs that inflation will be too low, not too high. Go to WSJ

Professor Faust on Derivatives and Economic Instabilityb

In the mid-1990s as the open interest in some financial derivatives began to explode, Prof. Faust (Director of the Center but then at the Fed), was involved in several meetings where various experts argued that derivatives could not contribute to instability–derivatives only allow risk to be allocated to those who could bear it most efficiently. […]

Professor Wright Makes a Movie

Professor Jonathan Wright, who teaches investments at the CFE, along with Refet Gurkaynak, of Bilkent University in Turkey, have recently branched out into the film industry, creating a yield curve movie showing some peculiar behavior of the term structure of interest rates during the recent crisis. Ok, it may not be Citizen Kane, but we […]