Blog Archive

CFE Analysis

How about we settle for a well-run government?

Classroom duties this Spring were spiced up a bit by the steady flow of teachable moments coming from Washington. For economists, one juicy tidbit came when we read that Jared Kushner had been put in charge of an effort to make government run like a business. A final exam question practically writes itself: What does […]

CFE Analysis | Fed

What will the Fed Do? June 2017 edition.

We’ve been reviewing those ‘5 things to watch for’ pieces that often precede FOMC meetings. Our conclusion is that even a Fed groupy is unlikely to find 5 notable things happening at any given FOMC. This is as it should be in an age of transparency. We’re trying a different approach. We’ll try to distill […]

CFE | Spotlight

In Memory of Carl Christ

Carl Christ, a leading light in the economics profession and a beloved member of the Johns Hopkins Economics department, died Friday April 21. Carl, 93, was one of the most influential economists of his generation working on econometrics, macroeconomic modelling, and monetary and fiscal policy. There is a lovely article about Carl’s life and what […]

CFE Analysis | Fed

Q&A about Fed portfolio normalization

The best way to predict how the FOMC will react to evolving economic conditions, we at the CFE have been arguing, is to listen almost exclusively to communication on behalf of the consensus, and then to, as best as possible, take that communication at face value. As we’ve documented, this approach has had an excellent […]

CFE Analysis | Fed

What will the Fed do? March 2017 edition

After the December FOMC, I posted that I was sticking with a baseline, near-term-rosy Trump outlook, in which a robust economy is greeted by a Fed happily rising rates three or more times. Then as now, I had no great confidence that the rosy scenario would continue to unfold, but forecasting 3 or more rate […]

CFE Analysis | Macro

Populist policies cause immediate misery. Or not.

As a professional economist, I am quite certain that most readers of this blog could cancel their insurance policies and spend the savings on a pleasant party. And with any luck, the good times could go on for, as the Fed would say, a considerable period. The Wall Street Journal, a few weeks back, described […]

CFE | Spotlight

Genetics and Investment Returns

Fortune magazine is featuring exciting new genetic research by Johns Hopkins researchers. This might not seem so surprising, but we’re pretty sure it’s a first that the genetic research comes from the Economics Department and concerns investment behavior. Assistant Professor Nick Papageorge (by general consensus the coolest person on our faculty) along with two of […]

CFE Analysis | Macro

Surely we're behind some curve!

Let us take a moment explicitly to place the CFE in the pro-facts camp. We are honored to work at Johns Hopkins University, the first modern research university in the U.S., founded on a hard-nosed commitment to facts and with a mission to discover facts and to teach how to deploy them constructively. Ok, got […]