The FOMC minutes released yesterday and today’s CPI data release underscore a remarkable shift. Over the past five years, the state of the labor market has dominated monetary policy discussions, […]
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Category: Macro
Nice weather we're having? Seasons and jobs
When macroeconomic data such as today’s employment report are released, we often focus on seasonally adjusted numbers. Seasonally adjusted employment numbers smooth through changes in employment that are judged to […]
A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out Years
Larry Summers recently raised the possibility of the US economy being in danger of facing a long period of subpar growth. The fear is at least somewhat reflected in several […]
The U.S. Budget Outlook, with Consistent Growth/Real Rate Assumptions, Looks Much Less Dire!
The CBO’s recent projection of a federal-debt disaster rests critically on the combination of two projections: 1. Real interest rates will rise substantially, increasing the cost of debt service. 2. […]
The Euro Crisis: Four Hard Truths
German voters go to the polls on Sunday to determine the future leadership of their country – and perhaps the future of the Eurozone, as well. With the continent’s largest […]
Real GDP Revisions: A Better 2012, Front Loaded
The Q2:2013 rise for real GDP, 1.7%, was better than expected and much better than feared. The two big misses, relative to expectations, were a contribution from inventory investment and […]
“From bloodletting to leaches” – the outlook for the Eurozone
Eurozone officials are considering a proposal to do away with one- and two-cent Euro coins, which cost more to make than they are worth. It may be a worthy cause, […]
Dodging Bullets and Healing at a Quickening Pace
CFE and SPF Comparison Real GDP Unemployment Nonfarm Payrolls SPF Median CFE SPF Median CFE SPF Median CFE 2013Q2 1.8 2.6 7.6 7.5 179 196 2013Q3 2.3 2.6 […]
Storm tracking in the Mediterranean
“A Euro in Cyprus is not the same as a Euro elsewhere”…Olivier Jeanne. A debt crisis in the island nation of Cyprus threatened to blow into Europe as a full-blown […]
The US Fiscal Situation: the good, the bad and the ugly
CFE Advisory Board Member and Chief Global Economist at Deutsche Asset and Wealth Management, Josh Feinman, wrote the following commentary on the current US fiscal situation: Deficits and debt, government spending and […]
Japan: Changing Course?
CFE Advisory Board Member and Chief Global Economist at Deutsche Asset and Wealth Management, Josh Feinman, wrote the following commentary on the current US fiscal situation: Japan: changing course? For […]
September Jobs Data
CFE co-director Bob Barbera writes a piece digging into the sharp rise in employment in the September employment survey: Much Ado About Not Much