After the December FOMC, I posted that I was sticking with a baseline, near-term-rosy Trump outlook, in which a robust economy is greeted by a Fed happily rising rates three […]

As a professional economist, I am quite certain that most readers of this blog could cancel their insurance policies and spend the savings on a pleasant party. And with any […]

Let us take a moment explicitly to place the CFE in the pro-facts camp. We are honored to work at Johns Hopkins University, the first modern research university in the […]

Another year of well-disguised, steady predictability in Fed policy is in the books, and the FOMC hit the trifecta at the December meeting. The Fed did what policymakers had clearly […]

Like most folks who focus on such things, I expect a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate target range at the December FOMC meeting. Since mid-August, I’ve […]

The pre-election views that a Trump victory would mean a market route proved way off the mark. Instead, as of early December, the stock market and bond yields have jumped […]

The Swedish Riksbank just published a volume on Rethinking the Central Bank Mandate. The Riksbank, the world’s first central bank, is now working to engage the public in a thoroughgoing […]

Yesterday, CFE joined the Hutchins Center at Brookings in hosting a meeting on Fed communication. We had a vigorous discussion among an impressive group of current and former Fed officials: […]

I hate to pull your attention away an edifying display of democracy in all its glory, so this will be brief. My prediction for today’s FOMC meeting is slightly different […]

In a recent Financial Times article, Faust notes: [A] growing chorus of voices as diverse as Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for the presidency, and Martin Feldstein, former chief economic […]

After last night’s post, I got emails accusing me of being a two-handed economist. While anatomically correct, I take the point, so I’ll add this note saying that my view […]

Over the last several weeks, investors faced the realizations that the Fed might take one more step on the road to normalization and that Mario Draghi’s ‘Do what it takes’ […]