Part of my job the last three years on leave at the Fed was following public commentary on Fed policy—both expert and lay commentary. There were at least two reasons for doing so. First, lots of good ideas come in, and given the difficult times we were facing, careful consideration of all reasonable ideas was the order of the day. Second, the Fed recognized that its use of unfamiliar tools gave rise to a special responsibility to explain policy. Keeping track of public commentary was an essential part of deciding what communication should focus on.

One steady theme in the commentary over the entire period was concern that the Fed would soon “fall behind the curve” with regard to containing a burst of high inflation. This was and is a serious concern. But the opposite risk—the risk of tightening too soon and causing disinflation–is also a concern. Today’s Wall Street Journal Realtime economics blog carries a piece I wrote on this topic: Is the Fed Behind the Curve or Jumping the Gun?