Not so fast about the bond vigilantes

There is much excited talk in the press these days about the rise in ten-year yields to 1.5 percent and the rise to 2 percent for the breakeven inflation rates expressed when we comparing Treasury nominal and TIPS yields. The bond vigilantes are back! Another Great Inflation around the corner!


Recovery, Expansion, and an Old Normal Yield Curve

In December of 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 3.6% and prime age labor force participation, at 82.9%, was at an 11 year high. Today, December 2020 jobs figures were released, with unemployment at 6.7% and participation at 81%, both making it clear that today’s economic backdrop is bleak. These data also make clear that engineering an extended period of strong growth is highly justifiable.


Inside Baseball

Seasonal adjustment is one of the more obscure potential casualties of the pandemic recession. A well known problem with seasonal adjustment is that an outlier observation will lead the seasonal adjustment process to shift its belief about what is normal for that month. In cases like the coronavirus recession, this is undesirable because the unusual […]


538 survey of macroeconomists

The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver, has just done a survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann at UC San Diego and I helped them with this and the results were released this afternoon. The results point to a deep recession with a […]


Budget Projections, Interest Rate Assumptions, and Preposterous Assertions

Since early 2014, we’ve been lamenting the fact that CBO has persisted in telling the same Armageddon budget story as it was telling 2009-2012, despite the fact that the deficit picture had dramatically improved. We mused aloud that if real debt problems did reappear, they might regret having spent several years crying wolf. If we […]


2014: The Year of the Hawk

Fed Chairman Bernanke commented on the monetary policy outlook at a speech at the NBER a couple of weeks ago, and then again in Congressional Testimony. He gave a clear signal that the current voting members of the FOMC plan to maintain a highly accommodative overall stance of monetary policy for some time. These remarks […]


CFE featured in JHU magazine

The spring 2013 issue of the JHU magazine contains an interview with Lou Maccini and Chuck Clarvit about the establishment of the CFE in 2007.


Is your online reputation hurting your chances of securing the internship or job of your dreams?

The JHU Career Center invites you to join Charles Clarvit ’78, University Trustee and CEO of Vinci Partners-US and Patrick Ambron, Co-founder & CEO, BrandYourself.com As they share how to monitor, optimize, and protect your online reputation through BrandYourself.com. Patrick will also discuss developing and launching BrandYourself from his firsthand experience as an entrepreneur. While this […]


Another Minsky Moment?

Bloomberg Magazine asked CFE Co-Director Bob Barbera if the current low level of the VIX and high hedge fund leverage meant that the economy was on the brink of another Minsky moment.  Here is his reply. The late economist Hyman Minsky brilliantly documented that attitudes toward risk taking evolve in a predictable pattern over the […]


Barbera Remarks at Conference on Financial Market Instability

CFE co-director Bob Barbera spoke at the Hyman Minsky Conference on Financial Market Instability in Berlin on November 27 and 28.  Here is a link to the conference program. http://www.levyinstitute.org/conferences/berlin2012/ and here is the text of Bob’s remarks Bob Barbera Remarks


September Jobs Data

CFE co-director Bob Barbera writes a piece digging into the sharp rise in employment in the September employment survey: Much Ado About Not Much


A Day Late and a Euro Short

Discussion by CFE co-directors Bob Barbera and Jonathan Wright with Olivier Jeanne and Nicolas  Jabko on the unfolding situation in Europe, featured in the JHU Online Arts and Sciences magazine. http://krieger2.jhu.edu/magazine/2012/07/a-day-late-and-a-euro-short/