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Author Archives: Jonathan Wright

CFE Analysis

Not so fast about the bond vigilantes

There is much excited talk in the press these days about the rise in ten-year yields to 1.5 percent and the rise to 2 percent for the breakeven inflation rates expressed when we comparing Treasury nominal and TIPS yields. The bond vigilantes are back! Another Great Inflation around the corner!

CFE Analysis

Recovery, Expansion, and an Old Normal Yield Curve

In December of 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 3.6% and prime age labor force participation, at 82.9%, was at an 11 year high. Today, December 2020 jobs figures were released, with unemployment at 6.7% and participation at 81%, both making it clear that today’s economic backdrop is bleak. These data also make clear that engineering an extended period of strong growth is highly justifiable.

CFE Analysis

538 survey of macroeconomists

The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver is running an ongoing biweekly survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann […]

CFE Analysis

Inside Baseball

Seasonal adjustment is one of the more obscure potential casualties of the pandemic recession. A well known problem with seasonal adjustment is that an outlier observation will lead the seasonal […]

CFE Analysis

538 survey of macroeconomists

The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver, has just done a survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann at […]

CFE Analysis | Fed

2014: The Year of the Hawk

Fed Chairman Bernanke commented on the monetary policy outlook at a speech at the NBER a couple of weeks ago, and then again in Congressional Testimony. He gave a clear […]

CFE

CFE featured in JHU magazine

The spring 2013 issue of the JHU magazine contains an interview with Lou Maccini and Chuck Clarvit about the establishment of the CFE in 2007.

CFE Analysis | Finance

Another Minsky Moment?

Bloomberg Magazine asked CFE Co-Director Bob Barbera if the current low level of the VIX and high hedge fund leverage meant that the economy was on the brink of another […]

CFE Analysis | Macro

September Jobs Data

CFE co-director Bob Barbera writes a piece digging into the sharp rise in employment in the September employment survey: Much Ado About Not Much