There is much excited talk in the press these days about the rise in ten-year yields to 1.5 percent and the rise to 2 percent for the breakeven inflation rates expressed when we comparing Treasury nominal and TIPS yields. The bond vigilantes are back! Another Great Inflation around the corner!
Author Archives: Jonathan Wright
In December of 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 3.6% and prime age labor force participation, at 82.9%, was at an 11 year high. Today, December 2020 jobs figures were released, with unemployment at 6.7% and participation at 81%, both making it clear that today’s economic backdrop is bleak. These data also make clear that engineering an extended period of strong growth is highly justifiable.
The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver is running an ongoing biweekly survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann […]
Seasonal adjustment is one of the more obscure potential casualties of the pandemic recession. A well known problem with seasonal adjustment is that an outlier observation will lead the seasonal […]
The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver, has just done a survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann at […]
Since early 2014, we’ve been lamenting the fact that CBO has persisted in telling the same Armageddon budget story as it was telling 2009-2012, despite the fact that the deficit […]
Fed Chairman Bernanke commented on the monetary policy outlook at a speech at the NBER a couple of weeks ago, and then again in Congressional Testimony. He gave a clear […]
The spring 2013 issue of the JHU magazine contains an interview with Lou Maccini and Chuck Clarvit about the establishment of the CFE in 2007.
The JHU Career Center invites you to join Charles Clarvit ’78, University Trustee and CEO of Vinci Partners-US and Patrick Ambron, Co-founder & CEO, BrandYourself.com As they share how to monitor, […]
Bloomberg Magazine asked CFE Co-Director Bob Barbera if the current low level of the VIX and high hedge fund leverage meant that the economy was on the brink of another […]
CFE co-director Bob Barbera spoke at the Hyman Minsky Conference on Financial Market Instability in Berlin on November 27 and 28. Here is a link to the conference program. http://www.levyinstitute.org/conferences/berlin2012/ […]
CFE co-director Bob Barbera writes a piece digging into the sharp rise in employment in the September employment survey: Much Ado About Not Much