By Jon Faust For the last several months, many analysts (including me) have warned about the growing threat to Fed independence.  But some people that I respect have pushed back. Bond market vigilantes, they assert, will protect us–these vigilantes are market players who cause sufficient turmoil in financial markets in the face of bad monetary […]

By Bob Barbera and Jon Faust The July snapshot of U.S. employment suggests that job gains have slowed to a crawl, with three-month average gains down to 35,000. Days before the jobs report Fed Chair Powell argued that “a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and […]

by Jon Faust In August 2020, the FOMC adopted revisions to its policy framework that were mainly intended to deal with the problems of chronically low inflation and interest rates.  In the best tradition of Greek tragedy, high inflation almost immediately ensued. While inflation rose above 2 percent in March 2021, it was not until […]

By Floyd Norris  The aging of America continues, and it seems likely that this year there will be more people over 60 than people under 20 in this country, the first time that has ever happened. As recently as 1980, there were twice as many people under 20 – most of whom were yet to […]

By Floyd Norris  The labor market is booming.  The average unemployment rate in 2023 was 3.64%, down a smidgen from the previous year and the lowest for any total year since 1969.  But is that just because fewer people are looking for work, and therefore are not counted as unemployed?    A way to seek that […]

To an economist looking at the government CPI report that came out Tuesday, it is clear that inflation is receding. Over the past 12 months, the overall CPI is up 3.2%, far below the peak annual rate of 9.1% seen in the summer of 2022.  The co-called “core” rate, which excludes  volatile food and energy […]